COVID ski club

At my house the whole COVID lockdown has not been such a bad thing.  I happen to live on an island in the North Pacific that has snow covered mountains close to town.  Due to the COVID mitigation measures I work at home and my kids have been digitally 'commuting' to school.  Every day at 2 PM, after school and work, we have been going for a ski in the mountains close by.  In the past this was not possible because they were at school until 3:30 and there was never enough time.  Other people have been joining us, and we have been careful to maintain social distance during our outings.  I call it the 'COVID ski club'.  The kids have gotten really good at skiing!  This benefit is priceless.

And there are other benefits to the lockdown.  China is not producing very much smog, this summer there will be very few, if any, cruise ships visiting our island, and I think with all the empty shelves in the store that people here better appreciate where their food and supplies come from.  Here on a remote island in the North Pacific we have had only one positive case of the Corona Virus and, despite the recent economic hardships, life is pretty good.

Elsewhere things are not so good.  People are losing their jobs, small businesses are closing down, people are self isolated in their homes, and people are dying.  I gather that in some states they have closed the beaches and parks, and even restricted the sale of certain 'non-essential' products like gardening supplies.  It seems that up to 265 MILLION people around the world will be at risk for starvation (click here)! It has gotten crazy! In a recent article that I read the GDP is contracting about 5% for every month of the shutdown - so 2 months of shutdown has cost over 2 trillion dollars.  Millions have lost their jobs.

You have to wonder if the whole shutdown is worth the cost.  Back in early March it certainly seemed like the correct response.  I seem to remember estimates of 2-4% percent mortality and potentially up to 10 million dead if we did nothing.  The response was all about flattening the curve so that the hospitals would not get slammed.  It was all about slowly developing herd immunity.  But since then we have flattened the curve and we've also learned that the virus is not so deadly after all (some links here and here).  It seems that the percentage of people who die is far less than once thought - on the order of .1 to .5 percent and that it mostly kills the obese and people with underlying medical conditions.  If you are healthy - even elderly and healthy - you really have very little to worry about.  Catching the Coronavirus is about the equivalent of catching the flu.  If we did nothing 1/4-1/2  rather than 5-10 million people would die (a quarter million is still a horrific number).

But now, despite the lower potential costs and flattened curve, we are still in lockdown - and worse yet waiting for a vaccine to 'save us'.  A vaccine that is over a year away and may not even work all that well.  It seems to me that since early March that the 'goal posts' have even been moved forward a bit.  What happened to developing herd immunity? In my opinion, the economic costs of a continued lockdown now out weigh the saved lives.

Basically I think we could save far more lives if we spent trillions on something else - like how about heart disease that kills something like 850 thousand people a year?  Or how about tackling obesity and diabetes?  With a couple of trillion we could create healthy restaurants where all the poor could eat for free.  Or how about free health care for all?  The fact is that none of these things will be possible after our economy contracts due to the COVID hysteria.  There will be no money.  And worse yet - people will die due to the depressed economy.

I can't help but think to an earlier time when our country faced a similar hysteria - the Great Depression.  At that time due to a lack of faith in the banks and the economy people were 'self creating' a similar economic slowdown.  Businesses were scared to hire people and banks were closing.

But then too we had a serious president who face the crisis head on - listen to the first part of FDR's speech.  It is inspirational and very much could be referring to the COVID crisis of today.  To our irrational reaction to the Coronavirus.  To our 'nameless, unreasoning, unjustified terror which paralyzes needed efforts to convert retreat into advance'.  'Fear itself'.  What I call 'Covinoia'.

http://historymatters.gmu.edu/d/5057/

I am certain that my fellow Americans expect that on my induction into the Presidency I will address them with a candor and a decision which the present situation of our people impel. This is preeminently the time to speak the truth, the whole truth, frankly and boldly. Nor need we shrink from honestly facing conditions in our country today. This great Nation will endure as it has endured, will revive and will prosper. So, first of all, let me assert my firm belief that the only thing we have to fear is fear itself—nameless, unreasoning, unjustified terror which paralyzes needed efforts to convert retreat into advance. In every dark hour of our national life a leadership of frankness and vigor has met with that understanding and support of the people themselves which is essential to victory. I am convinced that you will again give that support to leadership in these critical days.

Anyway, that is my opinion and I am open to other ideas.  And realize, before you label me and disregard my ideas out of hand, that I am not a Trump supporter (he has done a truly awful job with the current crisis) or even a Republican.  I'm depressed that the issue has become politicized and worry that despite Trumps abysmal handling of the crisis that the whole over reaction is going to hurt the Democrats at the polls in the Fall.  I also think that our initial response was the right response.  But it is time to assess the current situation and come up with a new plan - one that better balances the costs against the benefits.

Patrick